Q&A: US state-level obesity by race and ethnicity
Published February 5, 2026
Adult obesity in the United States has more than doubled over the past three decades, rising from 19% of adults in 1990 to more than 42% in 2022, according to new research published in JAMA.
The analysis also forecasts obesity to continue increasing nationwide, reaching an estimated 47% of adults by 2035.
Video transcript
This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity
Why was this study undertaken?
We wanted to look at the patterns of adult obesity in the United States, because obesity is a major risk factor for a number of health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and even some types of cancer.
The study that was published recently is part of a larger study looking at disparities in cardiometabolic health in the United States. And as obesity is a major driver of those diseases, we wanted to understand the patterns, the disparities, and what populations might be at higher or lower risk.
What were the key findings of the study, and what disparities did it reveal?
The key findings of the study were that almost half of the US adult population are currently living with obesity, and that’s projected to increase. Our findings go through 2035. Among the populations that are showing concerning trends, we saw that younger adults were experiencing faster increases in obesity, compared with middle-aged and older adults. And this is particularly concerning because this means that these people are going to be living longer with the health-related concerns due to obesity and those associated health care costs, the burden to the health care system, etc.
We also found substantial variation within the United States by location, so by state, by race and ethnicity group, and by sex. And I think that’s especially important. There are a large number of publications that report findings at the national level, but those can really obscure trends that are important at the state level, where more detailed analysis is needed to identify interventions that can adequately address the obesity crisis.
Figure 1, shown here, shows modeled estimates of age-standardized prevalence of BMI categories in the US over time. And what you can see here is a series of bars that show the prevalence by different BMI categories for four different time points by race and ethnicity group, and sex. And what the mean message here to takeaway is that for all of the race and ethnicity groups shown, the orange bar, which represents people who are in what’s called the normal BMI category, which is 18.5 to 25 kg/m², is decreasing over time. That proportion is getting smaller as you move from 1990 to 2020 and then into the forecasted results from 2035.
What’s particularly striking also for some of the groups, such as the non-Hispanic Black female population, is the increase in the size of the peach bar, the greater than 40 kg/m².
And this is the folks who are living with the severest level of obesity. This is associated with large amounts of health-related burden, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
And that’s a shift that has been noticed in all the race and ethnicity groups and is much more commonly seen among women than among men.
How do you hope the study will be used?
We hope that this helps highlight some of the populations that are especially at risk and can draw attention to those populations for clinicians and policymakers. Also, in terms of policy, helping urge policymakers to identify and invest in public health strategies that can reduce obesity. For clinicians, it’s helpful to use to talk to your patients, potentially, about why treatment of obesity and prevention of initial weight gain is especially important.
Again, our findings were largely that there’s an increase in younger adulthood. And so, if you can prevent that initial weight gain in children and young adults, you can prevent the prevalence of adult obesity and the health-related concerns.